18 thematic buckets
How the trillion-dollar AI capex cycle decomposes across the physical stack — from raw copper to sovereign AI funds.
Compute & GPUs
Training compute growing ~0.5 OOMs/year. AMD forecasts $400B AI accelerator market by 2027. Leopold EXITED all chip positions Q4 2025 — thesis migrated downstream.
Fabs & Foundries
<10% of TSMC's advanced chips currently go to AI. Massive reallocation potential. Intel foundry turnaround held as calls.
Semi Equipment
$1T of fab capex implied. ASML EUV monopoly. Not held by the fund — may be priced in or viewed as secondary beneficiaries.
HBM Memory
HBM is the memory bottleneck for AI accelerators. China uses Western HBM; CXMT sampling soon. SK Hynix ~50% share.
Nuclear Power
Needed long-term but 'takes too many years to build.' Amazon bought 1GW DC next to a nuclear plant. Fund EXITED VST and CEG Q4 2025.
Gas & Turbines
Natural gas is the most plausible near-term route. PA shale = ~200GW continuous, buildable in 1-2 years. Bloom Energy is the fund's #1 position.
Grid & Transformers
Electricity infrastructure must grow 'tens of percent' by decade's end. Transmission becomes critical chokepoint.
Data Center REITs
Clusters scale from $500M (2022) to $1T+ (2030). Fund holds Kilroy Realty.
Cooling & Thermal
At 1GW+ per cluster, cooling becomes existential. Liquid cooling required for dense GPU racks.
Hyperscalers
Microsoft Office AI add-on = $100B revenue. Meta buying 350,000 H100s. Amazon's 1GW nuclear DC.
Optical Networking
Distributed training across millions of GPUs needs high-BW, low-latency optical interconnects. Fund holds Lumentum (11.2%) + Coherent.
Copper & Raw Materials
Massive electrical buildout requires copper for cables, transformers, switchgear. 'Hundreds of millions of GPUs will hum.'
Uranium
If nuclear accelerates via SMRs, uranium demand surges. HALEU enrichment chokepoint.
Defense & National Security
'Superintelligence will give a decisive economic and military advantage.' By early 2030s US arsenal 'probably obsolete.' Pentagon-like coordination implied.
Cybersecurity
State actors can zero-click hack any iPhone/Mac. AI labs need SCIF-level security. China-proof security requires USG involvement.
AI Cloud & Neoclouds
Core of Q4 2025 thesis. CoreWeave 18.2%, Applied Digital 6.5%, IREN 7.7%, plus Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI/HPC hosting.